Think Better
How to Think in Hypotheses
Starting with a best guess feels risky. In practice it's the fastest way to the right answer, as long as you're willing to be wrong.
The short version
The slow way to solve a problem is to gather all the data and hope an answer appears. The faster way is to start with a best guess and test it.
A good hypothesis is specific enough to be proved wrong. 'Something is wrong with sales' is not a hypothesis. 'We're losing customers in their first 90 days because onboarding is confusing' is.
Then ask: what would have to be true for this to be right? Go and check those things first. If you're wrong, you'll find out quickly and pick a better guess.
Try it now. Put this into practice with the Hypothesis Builder (coming soon).
What the full guide will cover
- Why answer-first is faster
- What makes a good hypothesis
- Listing what would have to be true
- Avoiding confirmation bias
- When to switch hypotheses